Unlocking Probability: An Intervention to Reduce Cognitive Load

Presenter: Lillian Isabel Lawlor

Faculty Sponsor: Andrew Cohen

School: UMass Amherst

Research Area: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences

Session: Poster Session 5, 3:15 PM - 4:00 PM, Auditorium, A84

ABSTRACT

Statistical literacy is essential to informed decision making in various fields, such as healthcare. This study investigates an intervention designed to quickly enhance probabilistic reasoning. We specifically targeted the summation error, an error in which people add up conditional probabilities across sets without adjusting for overall set size. Prior research suggests that individuals with low numeracy are particularly susceptible to making this error, pointing to a role for mental effort or cognitive load. To reduce cognitive load, an intervention was designed to implicitly teach participants to notice the critical nested set relations while de-emphasizing the role of numbers, i.e., focusing on concepts. We predict that participants who receive the intervention would make fewer summation errors. 

 


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