The Fading Colors: Temperature, Precipitation, and the Shifting Timing of New England’s Fall Foliage Season

Presenter: Emma L. Pelletier

Faculty Sponsor: Cam Anderson

School: Holyoke Community College

Research Area: Environmental Science and Sustainability

Session: Poster Session 6, 4:15 PM - 5:00 PM, 163, C7

ABSTRACT

While the seasonal reduction in daylight reliably initiates leaf color changes, the vibrancy and duration of the colorful display are acutely sensitive to regional climate conditions. Current climate trends of significantly warmer, autumn nights and increased frequency of drought are fundamentally disrupting the precise environmental cues required for optimal leaf color development. To address these changes, I examine how increasing climate variability, particularly changes in temperature and precipitation, influences fall foliage in the commercially and culturally significant deciduous forests of New England, specifically Massachusetts. I combine findings from a literature review on leaf color phenology with a case study that integrates data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation to detail how temperature and precipitation influence pigment dynamics and resulting leaf coloration. Findings from the literature review revealed that warmer overnight temperatures are the dominant factor in leaf color change, delaying cessation of leaf chlorophyll production and inhibiting the sugar concentration necessary to produce carotenes, xanthophylls, and anthocyanins, which correspond to yellow, orange, and red/purple colors, respectively. This trend in warming is projected to delay the peak leaf color window by up to two weeks and shorten the overall leaf viewing season. Additionally, increasing drought stress accelerates leaf senescence, causing premature leaf drop and dull, brown foliage. The long-term outlook suggests that the combined efforts of chronic warming and severe water stress will reduce the reliability and intensity of the signature leaf coloration in Massachusetts forests, potentially impacting the regional tourist economy.