Presenter: Caleb McKearney
Group Members: Aaryavardhan Chawla
Faculty Sponsor: Anurag Sharma
School: UMass Amherst
Research Area: Finance
Session: Poster Session 5, 3:15 PM - 4:00 PM, Auditorium, A77
ABSTRACT
When prompting six different LLMs to estimate the intrinsic value of BTC, what do they produce and what sort of implicit assumptions about risk and liquidity are embedded in those estimates. It takes a unique approach to different valuation outputs formed by AI synthesized logic, seeing if they converge or have diverged financial narratives, and using that to conform to a tailored valuation model to reach a final conclusion. We are trying to create an interview protocol for the LLMs and learn from them.
The recent decoupling of Gold and BTC is a divergence that exposed the fragility of the narrative that was confident amongst market participants in 2022-2024. Fast forward to early 2026, gold has soared around $5000/ounce, majorly because of its role as a geopolitical bunker amid fiscal anxieties and central bank accumulation, while BTC stayed stagnant in the $80,000- $90,000 corridor, acting more like a high-beta technology stock hedge tethered to liquidity cycle and M2 expansions. In a qualitative outlook, the difference between Gold and BTC is evident in its reactive elements. Gold responds to sovereign fear and deficits while the latter reacts to network constraints or technology dislocations like the recent hash rate drawdowns. Since the BTC/Gold ratio is at an all time low, this begets the question of identity. It challenges whether BTC is a store of value, or a speculative growth asset. It could also be a new monetary instrument awaiting a proper pricing model. This tension is exactly why it is relevant to assess BTC’s economic worth.